On Monday, December 2, 2024, at 12:00 c.t., the next date of our physics colloquium will take place this winter semester.
Dr. Timo Schorlepp, Courant Instructor and Assistant Professor at New York University, has been nominated for this year's faculty dissertation award. He will speak on the topic "PREDICTING RARE EVENTS IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS THROUGH INSTANTONS AND FLUCTUATIONS".
Predicting probabilities and typical shapes of rare but impactful events - such as high waves
and strong vortices in fluid flows, or extreme climate events - is an important challenge across
many scientific and engineering disciplines. A principled framework to address these problems
in stochastic systems is given by large deviation theory. Here, extreme event probabilities are
approximated by focusing on the most probable path, the "instanton", that leads to a
prescribed outcome. In this talk, I will present two contributions from my PhD work: (i) robust
instanton calculations via optimal control techniques, and (ii) more precise probability
estimates by exactly calculating Gaussian fluctuations around the instanton, using Riccati
equations and Fredholm determinants. These methods will be illustrated through examples of
extreme events in fluid turbulence (Burgers and Navier-Stokes equations) and nonlinear
interface growth (Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation). The broad goal of this work is to provide
more robust and precise predictions for rare phenomena in complex systems.
Abstract of the presentation by Dr. Schorlepp.
The introduction will be made by Prof. Dr. Hendrik Hildebrandt.
The faculty cordially invites all interested parties. Unlike the other colloquia, this time the event will only take place via Zoom:
All dates of the Physics Colloquium can be found here.
Picture: Timo Schorlepp